The Immediate Financial Impact of Donald Trump’s Tweets Related to China During the U.S.-China Trade War

Abstract

This thesis explores the impact of Donald Trump’s tweets related to China on the financial markets in the United States and China, particularly during the U.S.-China trade war period. The study collects financial variables of interest, including the USC-CNY exchange rate and several stock indices from both countries, at hourly intervals from January 2018 to December 2020, and uses OLS regression models to examine the immediate impact of Trump’s tweets on these variables. The study finds that Trump’s tweets related to China had an immediate impact on several financial variables, including a slight negative impact on the USD-CNY exchange rate, the U.S. stock market (S&P 500), the Chinese A-share stock market (CSI 300), and the U.S. industrials sector (MSCI USA Industrials index). Multiple regression analyses show that the number of tweets has a significant impact on the U.S. stock market and the U.S. industrials sector, while the number of retweets appears to be more market-moving than the number of favorites. The study concludes that Trump’s tweets during the trade war period were perceived by the market as a signal of a potential shift in U.S. trade policy towards China, leading to uncertainty and volatility in the financial markets.