How will COVID affect completed fertility?

Abstract

The brief's key findings are: (1) Birth rates have been falling since the Great Recession, and many thought COVID might accelerate this decline. (2) Indeed, birth rates did drop substantially early in the pandemic, but by the end of 2021, the COVID effect was actually positive. (3) This uptick may well be temporary, though, as early data show that the ideal number of kids has: (i) dropped sharply for women in their 20s, and (ii) held steady for women in their early 30s. (4) And evidence from the Great Recession suggests that the expectations of these women will not rise as they age. (5) If the drop in expectations holds in more comprehensive surveys, birth rates are likely to keep falling, and at a faster pace than before COVID.