Investigating uncertainty of phosphorus loading estimation in the Charles River Watershed, eastern Massachusetts

Abstract

Estimating annual phosphorus (P) loading in impaired fresh water bodies is necessary to identify and prioritize management activities. A variety of monitoring programs and water quality models have been developed to estimate P loading in impaired watersheds. However, uncertainty associated with annual riverine P loads tends to receive less attention. This study addresses this gap by exploring the range in annual total phosphorus (TP) loads from two common load estimation methods using data collected in the Charles River watershed (CRW) in eastern Massachusetts. The CRW has two P Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) reports due to impairments with respect to excessive summer algal growth. Three estimation methods are used in this thesis to quantify annual TP loads (LY): the concentration-discharge relationship (CQ), the land use coefficient (LUC) method, and the average concentration, continuous discharge (ACQ) method. LY derived using the LUC method spanned an average relative percent range of 214% at each site, whereas LY results from the concentration-discharge method spanned an average relative percent range of 56%. While results of the CQ method produced a narrower range of LY, the CQ relationship is subject to seasonal dependencies and inconsistency through time. Seasonal terms in the LOADEST program, a publicly available and commonly used statistics tool, do allow the model estimates to capture trends through time, an advantage over the LUC method. Results of an interlaboratory comparison of P concentrations demonstrate the potentially large role of analytical uncertainty in LY estimation. Significant discrepancies between the results of each method for a single location and time suggest that loading estimates and consequently management priorities may be dependent on the estimation technique employed.