A computer model for prediction of tenure ratios in higher education

Abstract

An approach to gathering information on tenure ratios and the use of an uncomplicated computer planning model are discussed. The approach employs the Interactive Financial Planning System (IFPS) developed by EXECUCOM. The IFPS computer simulation system can be used by administrators with minimal technical knowledge. Information required to implement the model should be easily recoverable from personnel files and can be categorized as past, current, and future information. With this information, tenure probabilities and projections can be generated. The probabilities are based on the assumption that the trends of the past 5 or more years will reflect future trends. Calculations for predicting the probability of a positive tenure decision, an early death, early retirement, or early resignation are provided. The tenure projection model is presented line by line. The calculation of the number of tenure-track faculty who receive a positive or negative decision in a given year is described, along with the calculation of transitions within the tenured faculty group. Projections are provided to illustrate the model. All elements of the model have been printed in chart form for the first 6 years. A second chart prints the conclusions of the model most useful in decision-making and extends the projections to the year 2000.